Parts of Western Europe are likely to see unseasonably warm and dry weather until mid-October, while Northern Europe will be cooler and wetter than normal, particularly over the next two weeks, S2S4E Decision Support Tool forecasts show.
In the current week there is “very high probability of above normal temperatures, with risk of extremes in France, Belgium, Switzerland, north of Italy and west of the Iberian Peninsula”, according to the S2S4E outlook published on 17 September.
In Portugal, Spain and Germany, temperatures are set to be above average also next week, while in the week starting on 30 September, France and the southern parts of the UK will particularly see warmer than normal weather.
Temperatures will remain above normal in the Atlantic region – mainly the UK – also from 7-13 October.
Cooler in the north and the east
In eastern Europe, there is enhanced probability of below normal temperatures next week, and October will also probably be colder than normal.
In northern Europe, meanwhile, it will be wetter and cooler than normal over the next two weeks, before drier conditions set in the first half of October. In December, temperatures are expected to rise significantly to extreme levels for the seasonal norm.
Low wind power production
Wind power production in central Europe looks set to be rather low until mid-October, although next week, there are “enhanced probabilities of above normal wind speed in northern Germany and very high probability in areas of Scandinavia”, the outlook shows. Low wind speeds are also predicted for the British Isles in October and northern France in November.
High solar power production this week
Solar power production, meanwhile, will likely be above normal in central and eastern Europe this week, before falling to below average next week and increasing again to above normal the week starting on 30 September.
New forecasting tool
S2S4E is a project working to make long-term forecasts more reliable and useful, particularly for the energy sector. Its new forecasting tool, the S2S4E Decision Support Tool, was launched in June and will be free to use at least until November 2020.
The project is funded by the EU’s research and innovation programme Horizon 2020 and is led by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.
Written by Iselin Rønningsbakk / CICERO and Julia Cannata / BSC.