Summer Extremes Outlook

Extremely high temperatures can occur during the summer period. Climate forecasts for up to 4 weeks ahead, known as sub-seasonal forecasts, can provide an insight into the conditions for the coming weeks and help predict extreme weather events, such as a prolonged period (several days) of abnormally hot temperatures or heatwave.

Extreme temperatures can cause a peak in electricity demand due to increased use of cooling systems. Within the framework of the S2S4E project, an outlook of the sub-seasonal forecasts will be issued weekly for 1-4 weeks ahead, which can be used to anticipate these summer extremes. These forecasts will be made available every Friday on this page.

A detailed explanation of how these forecasts can be interpreted, and a use case of how sub-seasonal forecasts predicted the heatwaves in summer 2019 are provided in the Summer Extremes factsheet.

Summer Extremes Factsheet

Sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts for other regions, variables and forecast windows are available in the S2S4E Decision Support Tool.

 

Outlook - 10 July 2020

Forecasts for 1-4 weeks ahead, issued on the 9th of July, predict exceptionally high temperatures in parts of France, the Iberian Peninsula and the Canary Islands for the week 13-19 July, with a risk of extremes. These high temperatures are likely to persist in the week 20-26 July. By contrast, unusually low temperatures for the season are expected in central and eastern Europe, and the eastern Mediterranean on 13-19 July. Forecasts for 3 and 4 weeks ahead show no clear signals of summer extremes at the end of July and beginning of August.

10 July Outlook

 

Outlook - 3 July 2020

Forecasts issued on the 2nd of July for 1-4 weeks ahead show that unusually high temperatures are expected in parts of eastern Europe, the Black sea, the Iberian Peninsula and the Canary Islands for the week 6-12 July, with a risk of extremes. These high temperatures are likely to persist in Turkey, Bulgaria and the Black Sea for the following two weeks. Above normal temperatures are also likely to persist in the last two weeks of July in southeastern Mediterranean. By contrast, low extremes are predicted in the UK and North Sea region throughout the month of July.

3 July summer extremes forecasts

 

Outlook - 26 June 2020

Forecasts for 1-4 weeks ahead, issued on the 25th of June, show exceptionally high temperatures in areas of southern Europe and north of Africa between the 29th of June and the 5th of July. The risk of high temperatures will mainly affect the south of the Iberian Peninsula, the north of Africa, the Canary Islands, the Balkan region, the Black Sea, and to less extent the Baltic Sea. 

Higher than usual temperatures are expected in the Iberian Peninsula and west France between the 6th and the 12nd of July, while the risk of heat extremes persists in the north of Africa and the Black Sea. During the week 13th -19th of  July, higher than usual temperatures are likely to affect the Mediterranean coast of Spain, the Canary Islands and southern Sweden and Norway. Forecasts for the week 20th -26th of July indicate that higher than usual temperatures are likely to persist in southern Scandinavia.  

26June_forecast

Outlook - 19 June 2020

Forecasts for 1-4 weeks ahead, issued on the 18th of June, show that unusually high temperatures are expected across northern and central Europe between the 22 and 28 June. These temperature extremes will mainly affect the northern parts of France, Germany and Poland, and the UK, Scandinavia and Baltic countries. Temperatures above the normal conditions for the time of year are likely to be seen in parts of central, eastern and southwestern Europe in the week of 29 June to 5 July, although there is no clear signal of extremes. Forecasts for 3 and 4 weeks ahead do not show any clear signals of summer extremes, but indicate that high temperatures are likely to persist in the Canary Islands.

Forecasts 19 June

 

Outlook - 12 June 2020

Forecasts for 1-4 weeks ahead, issued on the 11th of June, show that exceptionally high temperatures are expected in northern and eastern Europe for the week of 15-21 June. These temperature extremes will mainly affect Scandinavia, Baltic countries, the north of the UK, eastern regions of Europe and the Canary islands. Temperatures above the normal conditions for the time of year are likely to persist in parts of Scandinavia and the Baltics in the week of 22-28 June. Forecasts for 3 and 4 weeks ahead do not show any clear signals of summer extremes.  

12 June Outlook