It has been a month since the online Decision Support Tool (DST) has gone live with operational sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts of wind energy, solar energy, hydropower, and energy balance forecasts. These forecasts provide high potential value for decision-making and planning processes across sectors of society, regarding climate change and variability.
As of 18 of July 2019, the latest sub-seasonal forecast (displayed in the DST) indicates that it is very likely that temperatures will be above normal in Europe this week (July 22-28). Having these robust forecasts in advance can considerably help populations and sectors prepare and prevent the negative consequences of extreme heat.
Specifically, in the latest forecast shown in the figure above, seven Central European countries have probabilities above 90% of having temperatures above normal. France, Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany have more than 60% probability of reaching extreme values (above the 90% percentile).
Previous case studies on extreme heat events
Previous case studies on extreme heat events that occurred in the past demonstrate that the S2S4E temperature forecasts can add positive value to decision-making in preparation for heat waves and above normal temperatures. Please refer to the following case studies for more information:
- Case study 2 Heat wave and low precipitation in Germany (2013)
- Case Study 3: Heat wave and wind drought in Spain (late summer 2016).
Written by Julia Cannata / BSC.