A recent study highlights the value of climate services, such as the DST developed by the S2S4E project, for the hydropower sector.

The S2S4E Decision Support Tool (DST) provides hydro-meteorological forecast indicators for the coming flood season to the hydropower sector.
 

Climate change is increasing the variability of the weather, making extreme events stronger and more frequent. At the same time, renewable energy supply and demand are strongly weather-dependent. Through better climate predictions available weeks and months in advance, we can improve the resilience of renewables and transition to a more sustainable future. 

The S2S4E project was represented at the annual E-world Energy & Water trade fair.

The transition to renewable energy makes it more important for power producers to get accurate information about the weather that is to come. Climate scientists are currently investing considerable effort and resources to help them get better long-term forecasts.

“Sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting – meaning forecasts for the next few weeks and months – is still at an early stage, and it is very challenging to provide accurate predictions,” says Jana Sillmann, research director at CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

Oslo city centre in mid-december: temperatures above freezing and no snow in sight. Photo by iselin rønningsbakk / cicero.

With an increasing number of wind turbines, electricity demand spikes during cold and still winter weather could prove even more challenging for electricity producers. As part of the S2S4E project, we are working to improve week- to month-ahead forecasts of such events, writes Hannah Bloomfield from the University of Reading.

In winter, many Central and Northern European countries, including the UK, have a significantly higher electricity demand than they do in summer, due to an increased need for heating and lighting. 

S2S4E forecasts show that central and northern Europe may face above normal temperatures during February, March and April. The period may begin windy in Northern Europe, combined with reduced precipitation in Sweden. Solar radiation is likely to be below normal in March in central Europe.      

Above normal temperatures to persist in southern Scandinavia

The unusual warm temperatures this winter and forecasts indicating milder winter conditions for January, February and March in Europe are partly due to an atmospheric circulation pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO. This atmospheric circulation pattern explains well the weather we get in Europe, especially in winter.

S2S4E will present the new forecasting tool for the energy industry at E-World Energy & Water from 11-13 February. Visit our stand to learn more about what we are doing to make long-term forecasts more reliable!

At our stand, which will be part of the Montel stand (stand 3-124) in hall 3, you will be able to meet Llorenç Lledó from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, and Karla Hernández and Joan Miquel Anglès from Nnergix Energy Management.